If Powell were to maintain his neutral stance on forward guidance, dollar could strengthen as Fed Fund Futures is already pricing in a 95% cut in September. Short EUR/USD?
A weaker retail sale could cause the US yield curve to steepen, resulting in a stronger dollar due to US yield curve correlation with the dollar index. Long USD/JPY?
As RBA’s optimism last week was largely due to labour data, a stronger data tomorrow could boost the Aussie dollar. Short EUR/AUD if data surpasses expectations.
BOC could hold rates and reiterate cautiousness amid the trade war chaos and weaker oil prices. USD/CAD could close above 1.3500.